GoldenStraddler
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Week ending 25 Sep 26

Markets this week

Calls for 16 markets from a scoring model that runs on public data: the dollar, yields, trend, fear and how the big funds are positioned. Every point is a number you can check, and every call is graded.

4 / 9bullish and bearish calls this week, 3 with no clear lean
56%forex calls right since 2023, on data the model never saw (up weeks 53%)
53%all 1,294 calls since 2023, against a 53% up-week rate
Liverecord starts with this week's calls

Macro pulse

Dollar index100.98 +0.46% on the weekDXY weights, ECB rates
US 10y real yield2.83% +0.15 on the weekFRED DFII10
US 2y yield4.81% +0.05 on the weekFRED DGS2
VIX14.9 +0.06 on the weekCboe, via FRED
Gold$4,271 −2.01% on the weekSpot, weekly close
WTI crude$95.88 −5.48% on the weekEIA spot, weekly close

Releases ahead

High impact only. Times in your time zone.
  1. USDAverage Hourly Earnings m/m
    Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.3%
    Watch on YouTubeSource: BLS
  2. USDNon-Farm Employment Change
    Forecast 89KPrevious 162K
    Watch on YouTubeSource: BLS
  3. USDUnemployment Rate
    Forecast 4.1%Previous 4.1%
    Watch on YouTubeSource: BLS

The desk

Price26 weeksCall
GoldXAUUSD $4,184−2.04% −2.0% Bearish −0.40
SilverXAGUSD $61.29 – Bearish −0.35
PlatinumXPTUSD $1,737 – No clear lean −0.04
CopperHG $6.506 – Leaning bearish −0.16
WTI crude oilUSOIL $95.88−5.48% −5.5% No clear lean −0.02
Brent crude oilUKOIL $116.01−3.05% −3.1% No clear lean −0.06
Natural gasNGAS $3.21+8.08% +8.1% Bullish +0.30
EUR/USDEURUSD 1.1250−1.35% −0.5% Leaning bearish −0.22
GBP/USDGBPUSD 1.3203−0.37% −0.7% Leaning bearish −0.24
USD/JPYUSDJPY 159.71+1.34% −0.2% Leaning bullish +0.26
AUD/USDAUDUSD 0.6943−1.24% −1.3% Bearish −0.32
USD/CADUSDCAD 1.4238+0.67% +0.9% Leaning bullish +0.26
USD/CHFUSDCHF 0.8285+0.02% +0.3% Leaning bullish +0.15
NZD/USDNZDUSD 0.5671−0.70% −0.7% Leaning bearish −0.24
BitcoinBTCUSD $86,266+2.58% +4.0% Leaning bearish −0.24
EtherETHUSD $2,756+2.38% +3.1% Bearish −0.34

The briefs

One per market, written from the numbers. Copy any of them as a Telegram post.

Metals

GOLD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Gold XAUUSD

$4,184−2.04%live, since Friday's close
Bearishlow confidence
−0.40
52 weeks

Price: $4,271, down 2.0% on the week. Broke below $4,300.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.19
  • Real yields−0.15
  • Fear gauge−0.02
  • Dollar−0.02

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Inflation adjusted 10 year yields rose to 2.83%, which raises the cost of holding gold.
  • Real yields at 2.83% are still historically high, so cash and bonds pay well.
  • The VIX sits near 15, close to a 52 week low, so there is no fear bid.
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes gold dearer outside the US.

A more hawkish Fed and rising real yields outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 59% of 29 weekly calls, while price rose in 56% of weeks.

Gold's price history uses PAX Gold (a token backed by one ounce of gold each), rescaled to the current spot price.

Charts and full data

SILVER WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Silver XAGUSD

$61.29live, since Friday's close
Bearishlow confidence
−0.35

Price: $61.41 (live spot).

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.20
  • Real yields−0.13
  • Dollar−0.02

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Inflation adjusted 10 year yields rose to 2.83%, which raises the cost of holding silver.
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes silver dearer outside the US.

A more hawkish Fed and rising real yields outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Not enough history for a backtest yet.

Not enough price history yet for the trend factors. They switch on once we have 50 weeks of data.

Charts and full data

PLATINUM WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Platinum XPTUSD

$1,737live, since Friday's close
No clear lean
−0.04

Price: $1,742 (live spot).

What's driving it

  • Dollar−0.04

Bearish side

  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes platinum dearer outside the US.

No clear lean: a firmer dollar on its own isn't enough for a call. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Not enough history for a backtest yet.

Not enough price history yet for the trend factors. They switch on once we have 50 weeks of data.

Charts and full data

COPPER WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Copper HG

$6.506live, since Friday's close
Leaning bearishlow confidence
−0.16

Price: $6.519 (live spot).

What's driving it

  • Crowding−0.20
  • Fund flows+0.08
  • Dollar−0.04

For it

  • At about 83,000 net long contracts, hedge funds are near their biggest bet in 3 years, so the trade is crowded.
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes copper dearer outside the US.

Against it

  • Hedge funds added about 17,000 net long contracts.

Crowded longs and a firmer dollar outweigh funds adding exposure. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Not enough history for a backtest yet.

Not enough price history yet for the trend factors. They switch on once we have 50 weeks of data.

Charts and full data

Energy

WTI CRUDE OIL WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

WTI crude oil USOIL

$95.88−5.48%week to 25 Sep 26, last print 29 Sep 26
No clear lean
−0.02
52 weeks

Price: $95.88, down 5.5% on the week. Broke below $100.00.

What's driving it

  • Dollar−0.02
  • Trend+0.02
  • Oil link−0.02

Bullish side

  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near $79.35.

Bearish side

  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes oil dearer outside the US.

No clear lean: an intact uptrend and a firmer dollar roughly cancel out. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 50% of 88 weekly calls, while price rose in 52% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 60% of 141.

Charts and full data

BRENT CRUDE OIL WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Brent crude oil UKOIL

$116.01−3.05%week to 25 Sep 26, last print 29 Sep 26
No clear lean
−0.06
52 weeks

Price: $116.01, down 3.1% on the week.

What's driving it

  • Fund flows−0.03
  • Dollar−0.02
  • Trend+0.02
  • Oil link−0.02

Bullish side

  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near $86.65.

Bearish side

  • Hedge funds cut about 2,900 net long contracts, and at 5,000 the bet is only mid range.
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, which makes Brent dearer outside the US.

No clear lean: an intact uptrend and funds cutting exposure roughly cancel out. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 46% of 78 weekly calls, while price rose in 52% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 62% of 149.

Charts and full data

NATURAL GAS WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Natural gas NGAS

$3.21+8.08%week to 25 Sep 26, last print 29 Sep 26
Bullishlow confidence
+0.30
52 weeks

Price: $3.21, up 8.1% on the week. Cleared $3.00.

What's driving it

  • Fund flows+0.30

For it

  • Hedge funds trimmed about 35,000 contracts from their net short position, now about 66,000.

Funds adding exposure outweighs the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 49% of 140 weekly calls, while price rose in 52% of weeks. September 2019 to 2022: 53% of 119.

Charts and full data

Forex

EUR/USD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

EUR/USD EURUSD

1.1250−1.35%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bearishmoderate confidence
−0.22
52 weeks

Price: 1.1403, down 0.50% on the week.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.21
  • Trend−0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Price is below its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 1.1617 overhead.

A more hawkish Fed and a downtrend outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 54% of 98 weekly calls, while price rose in 50% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 57% of 120.

Charts and full data

GBP/USD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

GBP/USD GBPUSD

1.3203−0.37%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bearishmoderate confidence
−0.24
52 weeks

Price: 1.3252, down 0.69% on the week. Broke below 1.3300.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.21
  • Fund flows−0.02
  • Trend−0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Leveraged funds cut about 5,600 net long pound contracts, and at 13,000 the bet is on the low side for 3 years.
  • Price is below its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 1.3402 overhead.

A more hawkish Fed and funds cutting exposure outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 54% of 95 weekly calls, while price rose in 49% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 57% of 110.

Charts and full data

USD/JPY WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

USD/JPY USDJPY

159.71+1.34%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bullishlow confidence
+0.26
52 weeks

Price: 157.59, down 0.19% on the week.

What's driving it

  • Fed path+0.24
  • Fund flows+0.03
  • Trend−0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Leveraged funds cut about 16,000 net long yen contracts, and at 7,400 the bet is on the high side for 3 years.

Against it

  • Price is below its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 157.71 overhead.

A more hawkish Fed and funds selling the yen outweigh a downtrend. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 53% of 104 weekly calls, while price rose in 61% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 54% of 94.

Charts and full data

AUD/USD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

AUD/USD AUDUSD

0.6943−1.24%live, since Friday's close
Bearishhigh confidence
−0.32
52 weeks

Price: 0.7030, down 1.3% on the week. Broke below 0.7100.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.21
  • Crowding−0.10
  • Fund flows−0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • At about 59,000 net long Australian dollar contracts, leveraged funds are near their biggest bet in 3 years, so the trade is crowded.
  • Leveraged funds cut about 2,400 net long Australian dollar contracts.

A more hawkish Fed and crowded longs outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 57% of 104 weekly calls, while price rose in 52% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 55% of 121.

Charts and full data

USD/CAD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

USD/CAD USDCAD

1.4238+0.67%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bullishmoderate confidence
+0.26
52 weeks

Price: 1.4143, up 0.95% on the week. Cleared 1.4100.

What's driving it

  • Fed path+0.21
  • Fund flows+0.03
  • Trend+0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Leveraged funds added about 7,800 contracts to their net short Canadian dollar position, now about 47,000.
  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 1.3873.

A more hawkish Fed and funds selling the Canadian dollar outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 57% of 101 weekly calls, while price rose in 55% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 61% of 113.

Charts and full data

USD/CHF WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

USD/CHF USDCHF

0.8285+0.02%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bullishhigh confidence
+0.15
52 weeks

Price: 0.8283, up 0.32% on the week. That's a 1 year high.

What's driving it

  • Fed path+0.24
  • Crowding−0.12
  • Fund flows+0.02
  • Trend+0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Leveraged funds added about 1,500 contracts to their net short Swiss franc position.
  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 0.7961.

Against it

  • Leveraged funds are about 16,000 Swiss franc contracts net short, near the biggest short in 3 years, so the trade is crowded.

A more hawkish Fed and funds selling the Swiss franc outweigh a crowded Swiss franc short. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 61% of 108 weekly calls, while price rose in 53% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 55% of 131.

Charts and full data

NZD/USD WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

NZD/USD NZDUSD

0.5671−0.70%week to 25 Sep 26, last print 1 Oct 26
Leaning bearishmoderate confidence
−0.24
52 weeks

Price: 0.5671, down 0.70% on the week. Broke below 0.5700.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.21
  • Fund flows−0.02
  • Trend−0.01

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Leveraged funds added about 3,000 contracts to their net short New Zealand dollar position, now about 4,800.
  • Price is below its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near 0.5822 overhead.

A more hawkish Fed and funds cutting exposure outweigh the risks for now. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 54% of 110 weekly calls, while price rose in 49% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 57% of 125.

Charts and full data

Crypto

BITCOIN WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Bitcoin BTCUSD

$86,266+2.58%live, since Friday's close
Leaning bearishlow confidence
−0.24
52 weeks

Price: $84,093, up 4.0% on the week. That's a 6 month high.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.19
  • Real yields−0.12
  • Crowding+0.09
  • Stretch−0.03

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Inflation adjusted 10 year yields rose to 2.83%, which raises the cost of holding bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin rose 4.0% in a week and momentum is near overbought (weekly RSI 76).
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, a headwind for crypto.

Against it

  • Asset managers hold only about 3,200 net long bitcoin contracts, near a 3 year low, so there's room to buy.
  • Asset managers added about 410 net long bitcoin contracts.
  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near $78,134.

A more hawkish Fed and rising real yields outweigh room to buy. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 52% of 121 weekly calls, while price rose in 53% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 63% of 145.

Charts and full data

ETHER WEEKLY, 25 Sep 26

Ether ETHUSD

$2,756+2.38%live, since Friday's close
Bearishlow confidence
−0.34
52 weeks

Price: $2,691, up 3.1% on the week. That's a 6 month high.

What's driving it

  • Fed path−0.19
  • Real yields−0.12
  • Stretch−0.04
  • Dollar−0.02

For it

  • Two year Treasury yields rose 0.47 points in four weeks to 4.81%, so markets are pricing a more hawkish Fed.
  • Inflation adjusted 10 year yields rose to 2.83%, which raises the cost of holding ether.
  • Ether rose 3.1% in a week and momentum is near overbought (weekly RSI 84).
  • The dollar index rose 0.46% to 100.98, a headwind for crypto.

Against it

  • Asset managers trimmed about 430 contracts from their net short ether position, now about 1,500.
  • Price sits above its 20 week and 50 week averages, with the 50 week near $2,439.

A more hawkish Fed and rising real yields outweigh funds adding exposure. Average Hourly Earnings m/m on Fri is the main risk to this view.

Watch

Since 2023, on data the weights never saw: right 47% of 118 weekly calls, while price rose in 52% of weeks. January 2018 to 2022: 58% of 148.

Charts and full data

How the calls work

Each market gets a score between −1 and +1 from a handful of measured factors. Every factor turns one fact into a small score for that market, with a fixed weight, and the call is the weighted average: above +0.1 leans bullish, below −0.1 leans bearish, beyond 0.3 either way drops the word "leaning".

The same rules run over every past week to give the backtest. A call counts as right when the next week's close moves the way it said. The weights were chosen by looking at 2018 to 2022 only. From 2023 on, the model runs on data it never saw, so that's the honest test. Next to each hit rate we show how often the market simply went up, because always saying "bullish" would score that much.

What the test says: weekly direction is hard. The model has held up on unseen data in forex, where it beat both a coin flip and simply following the market's usual direction. In energy and crypto it hasn't beaten that bar since 2023, so read those calls as a summary of the data, not a forecast. Confidence on each call comes from that market's own record since 2023, lowered when today's factors disagree or some have no data.

Trend
Price against its 20 week and 50 week averages.
Stretch
Weekly RSI. Above 70 counts against more upside, below 30 against more downside.
Positioning
CFTC Commitments of Traders: the weekly change in the net position of hedge funds (managed money), leveraged funds or asset managers, and how crowded it is against the last 3 years.
Dollar
The dollar index, calculated with the DXY weights from ECB reference rates. A weaker dollar helps dollar-priced metals, oil and crypto.
Real yields
10 year inflation-protected Treasury yield (FRED DFII10): the change over 4 weeks, and the level against 10 years.
Fed path
The 4 week change in 2 year Treasury yields (FRED DGS2), the market's read of where the Fed is heading.
Fear gauge
The VIX (Cboe, via FRED). Fear supports gold, the yen and the franc, and weighs on oil, copper, crypto and the Aussie and kiwi.
Oil stocks
Weekly US crude inventories excluding the strategic reserve (EIA, WCESTUS1).
Oil and CAD
The 4 week change in WTI, which tends to move the Canadian dollar.

Who made this, and what it isn't

Prepared by Daniel Zammit, which runs GoldenStraddler. The calls are generated automatically by the model described here, from data for the week ending 25 Sep 26. Prices, yields, positioning and the calendar are facts from the sources below. The call and the confidence are the model's opinion.

This is general market information, not personal investment advice. It doesn't consider your goals, finances or experience. Backtests and past calls don't predict future results.

Conflicts of interest. We sell the GoldenStraddler EA, and we earn commission from partner brokers when people we refer trade with them. Our own trading account runs the EA on gold news releases and doesn't follow these calls.

Sources

  • Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED: 10 year real yield (DFII10), 2 year Treasury (DGS2), VIX (VIXCLS, © Cboe), and WTI, Brent and Henry Hub spot prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration: weekly US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic reserve (WCESTUS1).
  • European Central Bank reference rates, via Frankfurter. Our dollar index applies the DXY weights to these rates.
  • U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Commitments of Traders.
  • Live prices: gold-api.com (metals, crypto) and Kraken's public ticker (forex). Price history: Coinbase and Kraken (bitcoin, ether, PAX Gold). Calendar: ForexFactory.

Market artwork on this page is our own. "Watch on YouTube" opens a YouTube search for the release; we don't run or vouch for those channels.